What is REALLY happening with home prices

Posted by Gary Hoeferkamp , December 29, 2022

With so much being forecast on home prices these days, it is hard to know what the truth is. I have my opinions which I am about to share. No one knows for sure what will happen, but some things are pretty certain.

First (1), almost everything you see is not produced in St Louis, so it may have less effect here, or even the opposite at times. Second (2), the accuracy of the report can be questionable - what statistics are they using and what conclusions are being drawn from them. Third (3), does the publisher have a bias or particular interest to sway your thinking. This is why in spring 2020 I tracked very specific markets in St Louis to show you that the bottom was not falling out of the homes market back then, and began that again this summer in 6 municipalities spread around our metro, and posting updates every month, see below.

(1) Case-Schiller, which gets quoted a lot unfortunately, only tracks 20 large metros in the country (not STL), and dubiously at that, in my opinion. That tends to exaggerate the trends both ways, hot and cold, up and down. (2) Average sale prices almost always drop in the 4th quarter, not because the homes themselves are selling for less, but because smaller homes tend to sell then, just as the big homes (think pools and lush landscaping) tend to sell in the 2nd quarter, inflating the spring/ summer average sale prices, see graph at top (hard to read, but the trend the last 2 years by month is very clear, STL prices per MLS). (3) We all know that if you search enough stats, you can find some that work to your advantage. Look for an unbiased provider for more credible results, or at least realize the bias (yes I am a little biased). For accurate national housing stats, I like FHFA the best, and Zillow the least.

Here is another issue that is being brought up a lot the last 8 months, is the drop in new mortgages and refinances. The refi's speak for themselves with rates jumping so much this year. But the drop in new mortgages is less obvious. What I see is many more buyers using cash for purchases to be more competitive and also the jump in rates. Reading mortgages is a bad way to interpret the real estate market. My last 4 buyers are ALL using cash to purchase. Out of my 27 sales this year closed and pending, 9 were cash and 18 financed, making only 2/3 of them involving financing. According to the chart here Cash Sales Rise to 23% with Growing Entry of iBuyers and Fin-tech Companies (nar.realtor) cash purchases the last 14 years ran from 12% to 35%, and 23% in 2021 where most current comparisons are being made from. If my numbers are representative of the market at 33% cash buyers, that is quite a jump from 23% last year, and will make the number of new mortgages much less even if home sales are the same. And when the number of sales falls, which of course it does in the fall and winter, prices do not necessarily follow, especially when the supply of homes is low. Supply and demand, see market update below.

To summarize, I believe home prices in St Louis temporarily peaked in late summer, and are flat to slightly down since then, in the 1-2% range. We will see a significant price increase for the year (now running UP about 6%) due to the extraordinarily strong spring, which I will publish figures in late January. I also believe that prices in STL will slightly increase in the spring, mainly depending on mortgage rates and unemployment.

Here is an update on local real estate sales activity as of last week:

• Manchester had 5 homes available and 19 under contract
• Ballwin had 19 homes available and 35 under contract
• Kirkwood had 25 homes available and 40 under contract
• St Peters had 36 homes available and 65 under contract
• Arnold had 21 homes available and 24 under contract
• Florissant had 83 homes available and 85 under contract

The ratios run from 1.0 to 3.8 pending sales for every 1 available. Adding the total of these 6 areas is 1.4 to 1. My last comparison in early Nov was 1.4 to 1 (and 2.8 to 1 in late June) with the available home supply DOWN from November. That indicates a stabilized STL market, and with fewer sellers listing their homes than buyers buying homes, the inventory is dropping and keeping prices up. Here is the interesting part the last 30 days, is that Manchester/ Kirkwood/ Ballwin all have less homes on the market (Manchester dropped the most) AND more pending sales now than 30 days ago; and St Peters, Arnold and Florissant all have more (St Peters jumped up the most) homes on market AND less pending sales. The 3 closer in areas seeing more buyers and the 3 further areas seeing less buyers. I see this as a possible trend with employers expecting more time in-office, that may bring more buyers closer in again.

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I am currently SOLD OUT of homes for sale! I am actively showing several buyers, and have numerous sellers lining up for next year, but have time right now if anyone wants to sell before the spring rush. Yes, many homes are still selling quickly right now, and for top prices!

Enjoy your holiday season!